How Bolsonaro’s statements destroyed the rainforest

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro contributed to deforestation through statements opposing forest conservation, according to an international study led by the University of Bonn. The study found that destruction of the Amazon rainforest accelerated when Bolsonaro and his ministers posted messages opposing forest conservation on Twitter. Brazil’s environmental authorities were greatly weakened during Bolsonaro’s presidency, but the analysis suggests that even a perceived low risk of punishment was a driver of deforestation. The researchers estimate that the statements contributed to the destruction of up to 1,700 square kilometers (660 square miles) of forest—almost double the area of Berlin. The results were published in The Journal of Politics.

Can political leaders influence whether people comply with the law simply through what they say? The study uses Brazil as an example of how they can. The country is home to the largest section of the Amazon rainforest. In 2018, Brazilians elected Bolsonaro president. In the first months of his presidency, he and his ministers repeatedly made derogatory remarks about protecting the ecosystem.

The study found that statements by the Bolsonaro government accelerated destruction of the rainforest. “We analyzed data from the initiative MapBiomas Alerta,” said Dr. Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira. “This initiative reviews and validates deforestation alerts from various sources covering the whole of Brazil. We also examined more than 3,600 Twitter posts that Bolsonaro and his ministers of agriculture, environment, and foreign affairs published in 2019.” The researchers analyzed which posts suggested a lower risk of enforcement for violations of environmental laws. They identified 38 such posts.

Deforestation depends on the reach of the statements

Political messages are effective only if they are heard. The researchers estimated their reach on Twitter in 578 municipalities in the Amazon region. To do so, they analyzed how many tweets about forests citizens posted in those municipalities between 2015 and 2018. The more Twitter activity a municipality had, the more likely residents were to encounter relevant government tweets.

“We assume that such messages spread through word of mouth,” said Oliveira, a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR) at the University of Bonn. “Supporters share them, as do critics, and they are discussed locally until they reach the people who actually make decisions about deforestation. They view them as a political signal.”

The analysis found a direct and far-reaching response: In the regions at greatest risk, deforestation increased significantly in months when Bolsonaro and his ministers published posts opposing forest conservation. “The impacts were not limited to Twitter,” Oliveira said. “We see the same pattern when we analyze other forms of exposure, such as television.”

Effect depends on economic incentives

The researchers found that the government statements had no influence on municipal environmental fines or deforestation bans. “Our analysis indicates that, as a result of the messages, people change their expectations of the extent to which they will be prosecuted for breaking the law,” Oliveira said. “The effect is thus not attributable to any changes in the local enforcement of forest conservation laws.”

The phenomenon appears to be driven by economic incentives. The government’s messages had no stronger effect in municipalities with high levels of support for Bolsonaro than elsewhere. By contrast, the effect was stronger in areas where agricultural returns are high and where conservation policies have restricted deforestation in the past. The researchers estimate that, in 2019 alone, the statements by the Bolsonaro government contributed to the destruction of 190 to 1,700 square kilometers (73 to 660 square miles) of forest.

The study provides evidence of how powerful words can be—at least when they come from people with great political influence. The effect may extend beyond forest conservation and the Brazilian Amazon region.

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Gaby Clark

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Andrew Zinin

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