Hurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course

Hurricane Simon shifted track slightly on Sunday and was forecast to skirt Mexico’s west coast without making landfall, while packing heavy rain and severe winds.

The cyclone—downgraded one notch to a Category 3 storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale—is moving slowly and remained dangerous.

Weather reports had initially forecast a landfall around midday local time (6 p.m. GMT), but data gathered by hurricane hunter aircraft indicated the cyclone was moving more slowly and would only reach about 15 kilometers (nine miles) off the coast of Jalisco state.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest forecast published Sunday afternoon said the storm “appears to be feeling the effects of the nearby high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as the inner core is brushing up against the Mexican coast.”

“It is now looking increasingly likely that Simon will avoid making a direct landfall in the short term, though its eastern inner core will likely produce hurricane conditions as the storm continues to move,” it continued.

Even if a direct landfall does not occur, “all the cyclone’s cloud bands, or the intense part of the cyclone, will still be affecting” coastal communities, Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico’s meteorological service, told AFP.

“We’re going to have very severe effects, especially from wind along the coast,” with waves of up to nine meters (30 feet) and exceptionally heavy rainfall, he added.

Simon is the latest in a busy hurricane season in the Pacific, where the powerful El Niño ocean warming phenomenon is weakening wind shear, allowing the storms to gain in strength. By contrast, El Niño has helped keep the Atlantic hurricane season relatively quiet.

‘Be brief, be peaceful’

AFP journalists in tourist hot spot Puerto Vallarta, in the storm’s forecast path, observed overcast skies early Sunday, with heavier clouds building over the sea and mountains as a light rain was falling.

Businesses boarded up windows and doors, some spray-painting messages such as “Simon says, ‘Everything will be fine,'” a reference to the popular game in which children follow instructions; and “Simon, be brief, be peaceful” alongside a drawing of a shark and smiley faces.

A couple strolled along the waterfront promenade, which was guarded by troops. An occasional jogger also took the opportunity to get out of the house.

Cruz Castillo, a 60-year-old Vallarta resident, said he was worried despite the relatively mild conditions.

“We’re still watching to see how this is going to approach,” he said.

Moving slowly

The latest report from the NHC put Simon’s sustained winds at 200 kilometers per hour (125 mph), with the storm moving at just 7 kph (4 miles per hour).

The Mexican government said it expected Simon “to gradually weaken over the coming hours,” according to its latest report.

Simon has remained “nearly stationary” off Mexico’s coast, Boris Comi, a meteorologist with Jalisco’s civil protection agency, said. That means it can “generate more rain over a longer period,” which “puts the population at greater risk.”

Moving overland also helps weaken a storm. Puerto Vallarta, for example, benefits from its location in a bay and the presence of mountains that reduce the force of cyclones.

But moving parallel to the coast makes it easier for the storm “to remain at a slightly higher category,” Vazquez, the director of the Mexican meteorological service, explained.

On Saturday, the Mexican navy evacuated about 100 people by boat from coastal communities threatened by Simon. They were taken to Puerto Vallarta, where most have relatives they can shelter with. Others will go to one of five shelters set up in the city, which had already taken in 95 people by Saturday.

Elena Glumas, 63, arrived with her dogs from the village of Yelapa.

“Three years ago we lost everything,” she said, referring to Hurricane Lidia, which battered her village with torrential rain in 2023.

“Now, well, I say life comes first,” she said as she stepped off the ferry.

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Andrew Zinin

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