‘This is probably the safest time to be playing the sport of football’: Concussion expert explains why viral CTE study may not be as scary as it sounds

September 1, 2026 thedigitalsolutioncentre@gmail.com

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Of the former National Football League (NFL) players who died in recent years, at least 25% had brain changes related to chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a new study suggests.

The study, published Aug. 25 in the journal The BMJ, examined donated brain tissue from 338 former NFL players who died between 2008 and 2021. A total of 1,712 former players died in that time frame, so the analysis included only about 20% of the players’ brains that could theoretically have been examined. Then, the researchers used that subset of brains to estimate the likely prevalence of CTE in the overall group.

What can this study tell us about the CTE risk that current football players face, from youth sports to the professional level? To put the research into context, Live Science spoke with Thayne Munce, an associate professor and director of the Jayhawk Athletic Performance Laboratory at the University of Kansas, who was not involved in the BMJ study. Munce researches brain health and concussion in contact sports, primarily among young athletes. He cautioned that the BMJ study’s findings shouldn’t be extrapolated to all levels and ages of play, or even to today’s NFL players.

Thayne Munce

Thayne Munce is an associate professor in the Department of Health, Sport and Exercise Sciences and director of the Jayhawk Athletic Performance Laboratory at the University of Kansas (KU). He’s on the leadership council for the Wu Tsai Human Performance Alliance and is the alliance’s site director at KU, leading collaborative research aimed at advancing human performance. Munce is a fellow of the American College of Sports Medicine and a member of the Medical Advisory Panel for USA Football. He has a doctorate in kinesiology from Penn State.

Thayne Munce: It’s not surprising to me. This group and their colleagues have published previous work from donors — so these are former players who have donated their brains for research. They have reported even higher rates than 25% among just their donor sample [in this study]. This really high rate — over 90% of CTE cases in the donor group — is in line with what previous research has shown for these brain banks. So that’s not terribly surprising.

For example, if players just randomly selected to donate their brain to the brain bank and then they found that 98% of all of their samples had CTE — if that’s representative of all the players from that era, then that’s where you get the higher estimate. But if the majority of players that actually had CTE were the only ones who donated their brains because maybe they were showing outward signs or symptoms of dementia or cognitive decline or behavioral changes while they were living, then it becomes a very highly biased sample.

So these were players who died between 2008 and 2021, and the average age, I believe, was a little over 70 years of age. So if you extrapolate backwards, they probably played in the NFL starting around age 21 or 22 or 23 — that puts their playing days back in the ’60s and ’70s. So these were players who played in the NFL predominantly in the ’60s and ’70s, and would have played college and high school football in the ’60s and ’50s.

But that is the challenge of this study. It’s interesting [in that] it gives us a range of what CTE may be in that group of former players. But it doesn’t give us a lot of information about what rates are in current players in the NFL. And even more so, whatever the CTE rate is in professional NFL players does not translate to former collegiate, high school or youth football players, because CTE is an exposure-related disease. For players who have less exposure to these repetitive head impacts, it should follow that they have a considerably lower risk of CTE.

Maybe the most important thing is just the education around and recognition of concussion and brain injury in the sport. Now, when an athlete has a concussion, they are more likely to be recognized for having a concussion and be pulled from play and have an opportunity to recover before they return to the game. You hear anecdotal stories of former NFL players from that era, like the ’60s and ’70s, that suffered multiple concussions, oftentimes in the same game, and were not removed from play and continued to practice under those conditions. That medical recognition and treatment management of concussion and brain injury has moved ahead.

There’s actually a term called “second-impact syndrome,” and it’s very rare, so I don’t want to scare people. But there have been instances where players — it’s often, unfortunately, young players, high school players — who have had a concussion which, in retrospect, went undiagnosed and then there was a second concussive blow that led to brain swelling and death. That’s the extreme, but there are cases of that [repetitive damage] happening even on a lower scale.

I suspect that that was fairly common in years past, mainly because concussions generally weren’t diagnosed. No one was looking for them, and players certainly weren’t encouraged to report if they had the symptoms. So it’s very likely that many of these players, including the players that were in the [brain donor] sample, had concussions and played through them and continued to receive additional trauma on top of a brain injury.

Even in the study, they showed that they [the CTE brain changes and symptoms] weren’t necessarily linked. Now I believe they showed that for those who had more severe CTE — like the stage IV — that there was a pretty high rate of those individuals who also had subsequently diagnosed dementia. They had these clinicians that looked at the records and diagnosed them. That’s a little bit of a limitation of the study: that a lot of the dementia cases were diagnosed after the person had passed away, based on medical records.

To your more immediate point, the presence of CTE: So the presence of these markers in your brain does not necessarily translate into a clinical disease or a clinical diagnosis. There can be signs or symptoms that somebody may have — let’s say memory loss or changes in behavior — that may lead someone, like a former football player, to suspect that, “Oh, maybe I have CTE because I played football and I’ve heard that that’s linked with dementia.”

Many of these neurological diseases and conditions can be managed clinically, and there’s treatment. There’s therapy; there’s pharmacological treatments. There’s a whole toolbox available for people to seek help. That’s, I think, an important message for former athletes or individuals who may be concerned about developing CTE, is to recognize that there is a disconnect between clinical disease and the pathological disease. Just because you have some outward signs or symptoms that doesn’t mean that you have CTE.

TM: Again, from this study and other studies, just the presence of CTE does not necessarily mean that somebody’s mood, behavior, cognition is altered. It seems to be more likely — it seems to be a tighter relationship at the more severe stages, which would kind of speak to what you’re talking about. A certain threshold of disease progression seems to be more likely to manifest itself in clinical disease [with overt symptoms].

TM: I would go back to what we discussed earlier: just understanding the time frame in which the study was performed and when those players were in the NFL. I think we need to be cautious about projecting those rates; it’s a pretty wide range of estimates, and it has to do with how representative the sample is. We need to use caution if we are trying to interpret those rates for the current players.

TM: There’s a couple of areas that are really in the infancy stages right now. If you think about brain health as a continuum where you would have a disease like CTE on one end and then optimal health on the other end — let’s say repetitive head impacts take away from your brain health and tip the scale in favor of developing disease, what are things we can do to tip the scale back in favor of improving brain health?

We know that sleep is really powerful and could learn more about that in and of itself. And what about nutrition? What about pharmacological interventions? Wouldn’t it be great if we could develop a medicine, a drug at some point that could be taken preventatively to reduce athletes’ inflammation? Really looking into ways in which we can optimally improve brain health as a countermeasure to the damage or the trauma that is occurring.

And then, certainly, diagnostic techniques. We talked about CTE only being able to be diagnosed at death. It would certainly be a game changer if we could diagnose it convincingly in the living so it could be recognized early. People are going to have different risks, and some of that is probably genetically determined; some people are going to have the same level of exposure and develop CTE while some aren’t. If we could identify individuals who are at higher risk or in the earliest stages of the development of the disease, you can then change lifestyle, behavior, exposure — that would be huge as well.

TM: Most of my work over the last 15 years has been focused on youth football players. That’s been an interest in measuring repetitive head impacts and neurologic function in youth football players and some work in high-school-age players, as well. So a lot of that is focused around subconcussive injury [head trauma that does not trigger overt symptoms of concussion, like nausea, light sensitivity or thinking issues]. We’re looking at the effects of these nonconcussive head impacts on brain health.

That ties into the CTE question in the sense that CTE is thought to be due to cumulative exposure to brain trauma — repetitive head impacts — and certainly most of the work, like in this study, has been done in NFL players. The question for a lot of the general population is, “What about youth players, high school players, that make up 90% of all football players?” So from a public health perspective, it’s those younger players that I think we really need to be studying and concerned about.

TM: Going back maybe 15 to 20 years, people started to recognize that there were some cumulative effects of concussion. Those were some of the earlier studies showing that former NFL players who had multiple diagnosed concussions had worse outcomes later in life — that kind of put the spotlight on concussion. Concussion went to the forefront, in terms of how we thought about brain injury in football.

With CTE, it’s always looking backwards, because it’s something that’s diagnosed at death. For researchers like myself who study concussion, or study active football players, that has also then been a reaction of saying, “Well, if it is repetitive trauma, if it’s repetitive head impacts, that is a risk factor for neurodegenerative disease such as CTE, then that makes it even more important to study it in active players.” What does that head impact exposure look like at different ages, and how can we reduce that exposure? How can we reduce the number and severity of head impacts that players are experiencing?

TM: When I do talk to players and coaches and parents, I often like to remind them that, generally, the benefits of playing sports, including tackle football, outweigh the risk. Oftentimes we get so concerned about the risk, which is real, that we forget about the benefits and about the alternatives of not playing. Almost always, the benefits — from the physical, the psychological and social components, the mental health components — are going to outweigh the risks. That’s one thing to keep in mind.

Second, the risk of injury — in this case, CTE — is likely going to be far less in those younger players than older players, NFL players because their exposure, the number of impacts, the severity of impacts is far less. With my research, I’ve measured those head impacts and compared them to high school players and collegiate players, and extrapolated to NFL players because that data isn’t available. And you see this big stepwise increase in exposure from the youth, the high school, the collegiate, to the NFL players.

At the same time, I acknowledge that this is an individual decision that parents need to make with their kids and evaluate that risk. One of my goals as a researcher is that I want to provide more empirical evidence so that they can make an informed decision, so that a parent would be able to say, “My son’s risk of getting a concussion while playing youth football is 1 in whatever” — you know, 1 in 10, 1 in 5, or 1 in 100, whatever that case may be. And his risk of getting CTE by playing four years of youth football or four years of high school football would be this. Then you make an informed decision. Is that risk worth the benefit of participation?

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The Digital Solution Centre

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‘This is probably the safest time to be playing the sport of football’: Concussion expert explains why viral CTE study may not be as scary as it sounds

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