Search demand is shifting, not shrinking. Our analysis found that 29% of high-volume search demand is in decline, while nearly the same amount is growing elsewhere. Overall demand remains essentially flat because search behavior is being redistributed rather than reduced.
Focus your SEO strategy on where demand is growing. Review which keywords are losing volume, identify the queries gaining momentum, and build the brand authority that earns visibility in both search engines and AI-generated answers.
This study examines where search demand is moving, which industries are seeing the biggest changes, and what those patterns mean for SEO.
How we studied AI’s impact on search
In 2024, Gartner predicted that traditional search engine volume would fall 25% by 2026 as consumers shifted to AI chatbots and virtual agents. Fractl and Search Engine Land set out to test that prediction. (Disclosure: I’m the co-founder of Fractl.)
We analyzed Semrush data for 1,010,848 high-volume keywords, each with 10,000 or more monthly searches, across 379 brands in eight verticals. We also surveyed 1,004 U.S. consumers to understand how AI is changing search behavior.
The analysis measured which keywords gained and lost search volume over the past year, how those changes varied by industry, and how consumer search habits are evolving alongside AI adoption.
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The 29% search decline is real, but it varies a lot by vertical
Across more than a million high-volume keywords, 29% of search volume is in measurable decline. That’s 4 percentage points above Gartner’s forecast. In a dataset representing 35.4 billion monthly searches, a 4-point difference translates to a substantial volume of searches.
By industry, FinTech saw the largest decline at -37.7% and Lifestyle the smallest at -15.2%. Only three of the eight verticals (Insurance, SaaS, and Lifestyle) came in below Gartner’s 25% threshold. FinTech, HealthTech, and Wellness all landed well above it.
The pattern tracks with how information-heavy a category is. Where a chatbot can provide a complete answer, such as a drug interaction summary, an explanation of deductibles, or a quick fund overview, search volume declines. Categories that require people to compare prices, complete a purchase, or navigate to a specific site retain more search demand.
Verticals where people need to transact (SaaS, Lifestyle, Insurance, and Travel) are growing or remain close to flat. Verticals where people primarily seek information (HealthTech, FinTech, and Wellness) are seeing the largest search declines.
Benchmark these findings against your own vertical before reacting to AI-driven search declines. HealthTech and FinTech teams should plan for exposure well above the overall 29% decline. SaaS and Lifestyle teams have more reason to question broad claims that search demand is collapsing.
Search demand is redistributing
The top-line decline number gets the headlines. The offset matters because it shows that demand didn’t vanish. It moved to a different set of words, and those are the ones worth ranking for.
Yes, 40.7% of the high-volume keywords we tracked are in measurable decline, meaning more than a 15% volume loss over the past year. Among the affected keywords, the average decline is -41%, and 112,378 of them have lost more than 40% of their volume. For brands ranking on those terms, the hit isn’t gentle.
But 20.1% of keywords are growing by that same threshold. Add up the volume on each side of the ledger, and the two totals almost exactly cancel out.
The 285,489 declining keywords add up to roughly 10.29 billion in monthly volume. The 140,835 growing keywords add up to roughly 10.31 billion. Net change across the entire dataset: +16.8 million searches a month.
Fewer keywords are growing than declining, but the growing ones carry more volume each, which is how the totals end up even. Demand didn’t shrink so much as relocate.
The vertical-level growth-to-decline ratios show where the new demand is landing:
- Lifestyle leads at 2.6x (40% growing vs. 15% declining).
- SaaS is right behind at 2.5x (48% growing vs. 19% declining).
- HealthTech sits at the other end with an inverted ratio of 0.4x, which is why it’s the most disrupted vertical in the set.
Pull your tracked keywords, filter by year-over-year volume change, and see which side of the ledger your portfolio sits on. That’s the audit to run first.
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Non-branded queries are the most vulnerable
AI chatbots replace non-branded queries easily. When a search term doesn’t include a brand name, there’s no particular site the user has to reach and no specific source the answer has to come from, so the whole exchange can stay inside the chat window.
Across the dataset, 90% of all tracked search volume is non-branded. HealthTech (99.6%) and Wellness (98.5%) are the most exposed. Insurance (73.8%) and SaaS (82.0%) are less exposed, and both are growing overall. SaaS volume is up 48% in the past year, and Lifestyle is up 40%.
If you want to know which content is most at risk, the keyword-pattern data is the clearest signal in the study.
The reason SaaS and Lifestyle can be both AI-targeted and growing comes down to what happens after AI answers.
When AI recommends a project management tool or a couch, plenty of people still search for the specific brand or retailer before they buy. The AI answer creates a downstream search. In HealthTech and FinTech, it doesn’t. A drug-interaction question or a “what is a deductible” query gets answered in full inside the chat window, and there’s no next step that sends you to Google.
If your category produces complete AI answers with no natural next click, you need an AI visibility strategy, not just an SEO one. Showing up in the answer is the whole game now.
70% of consumers use AI more, but just 17% use search less
The keyword data tells you what’s happening in the index. The survey tells you what’s happening in the heads of the people doing the searching.
Search behavior has spread across more platforms. Plenty of people are folding AI into their habits without giving up Google.
Social platforms are working as search engines in a way they weren’t a few years ago. YouTube (68%) and Reddit (57%) lead by a wide margin, with Instagram (42%), Facebook (40%), and TikTok (33%) rounding out the top five.
YouTube and Reddit are worth prioritizing if you haven’t already. Both rank ahead of TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook as search destinations, and both index in Google, so visibility there compounds across platforms.
What has actually moved from Google to AI
More than a third of respondents (35%) say they haven’t replaced traditional search with AI for anything yet. Among those who have, how-to guides and tutorials took the biggest hit.
For purchase research, 47% of consumers start with a traditional search engine, tied with online retailers at 47%. Only 13% start with an AI chatbot, and shoppers check an average of three online sources before they buy.
Here’s the number worth bringing to your next strategy meeting: Nearly one in five consumers (18%) have bought something based on an AI recommendation without checking it against a separate search.
That’s a new kind of buyer journey, one where the brand never gets a search-driven touchpoint. To be in the running, you have to be one of the names the chatbot returns.
Gen Z and millennials are 2.5x more likely than baby boomers to buy based on an unverified AI recommendation (20% vs. 7%). Across all consumers, 59% say they’re likely to visit a brand’s website after an AI chatbot mentions or recommends it.
That’s the new conversion funnel. Brand mentions in an AI answer are the new rankings. Visits to a brand’s website are the new click-throughs.
On trust:
- 33% of consumers trust AI and traditional search equally.
- 46% trust search more.
- 20% trust AI more.
More than half (56%) are at least somewhat skeptical of AI product recommendations. People are happy to let AI filter and shortlist, but most still verify before they buy.
The 5-year outlook: Google’s not going anywhere, but the minority that’s leaving matters
Asked whether Google will still be their primary search tool in five years, 52% of consumers say yes (17% definitely, 35% probably). Another 27% aren’t sure, and 20% say probably or definitely not.
The top reasons people prefer AI over traditional search are better summaries across sources (21%), faster and more direct answers (20%), and the ability to ask conversational follow-up questions (19%). More personalized results and not having to click through websites trailed far behind, at 6% and 4%.
Asked what would bring them back to traditional search, the top answer was AI giving unreliable answers (35%), so much of this split depends on whether AI maintains people’s trust as it scales. More accurate search results came next (29%), followed by a preference for multiple source links (22%) and privacy concerns (20%).
The 20% who expect to leave Google aren’t a majority, but they’re not a rounding error either. You don’t have to rebuild your whole strategy around them today, but you do need to show up where they’re already going.
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What this means for your content and SEO strategy
Gartner’s 25% prediction was the right kind of directional warning. The real shift is steeper, but calling it a “decline” misses the bigger story. Total search volume is basically flat. What’s changed is which searches carry the volume.
AI visibility is a distribution channel, not a threat to dodge. With 59% of consumers saying they’ll visit a brand’s website after an AI mention, GEO is now a meaningful part of brand discovery. Earned media, credible third-party coverage, and entity signals help brands land in chatbot answers, which is why digital PR and GEO increasingly overlap.
Search is moving, not disappearing.
The brands that lose are still optimizing for queries AI now answers better. The brands that win are building the kind of authority that makes them the answer, whether it comes from Google or a chatbot.
Methodology
This study combined two data sources to test Gartner’s 2024 prediction that traditional search engine volume would fall 25% by 2026.
Fractl and Search Engine Land analyzed Semrush search volume data for 1,010,848 high-volume keywords with 10,000 or more monthly searches each, covering 379 brands across eight verticals: FinTech, HealthTech, Wellness, Travel, Education, Insurance, SaaS, and Lifestyle. The dataset represented 35.4 billion in aggregate monthly search volume. Keyword-level year-over-year volume change was measured as of April 2026 and classified as declining (more than 15% loss), stable (within 15%), or growing (more than 15% gain). Query pattern groupings (“What is X,” “Best X for Y,” “X vs. Y,” and “How to X”) were applied at the keyword level.
Fractl and Search Engine Land also surveyed 1,004 U.S. consumers about their search habits, AI tool adoption, and purchase research behavior. The sample was 52% women, 46% men, and 1% nonbinary, with 49% millennials, 26% Gen X, 16% Gen Z, and 9% boomers. The median respondent age was 41, with a range of 18 to 82.
Contributing authors are invited to create content for Search Engine Land and are chosen for their expertise and contribution to the search community. Our contributors work under the oversight of the editorial staff and contributions are checked for quality and relevance to our readers. Search Engine Land is owned by Semrush. Contributor was not asked to make any direct or indirect mentions of Semrush. The opinions they express are their own.
